SOGGY

HEAVY RAIN and POLYTRACK


The forecast for the Toronto area is rain - lots of it - more than 30 mm and it has already been heavy this morning.
How will this play out with the Polytrack at Woodbine that has just been brought out of its winter slumber.
Last weekend on the first 2 days of the meeting, the Polytrack looked good and played well and fair.
Certainly speed horses won most of the 5 furlong dashes but then again, speed wins 5 furlong dashes.
The rail path was fine even if so many riders floated away from the spot during the races but all that did was allow others to come flying up the fence to win.
With much heavy rain today and through Sunday, the Polytrack, its wax and its drainage system will be put to a big test.

Nine races for today including an Ontario-sired allowance race for fillies and mares later in the day.



HARLEM ROCKER TO WITHERS STAKES


Canadian-bred 3yo and Queen's Plate contender HARLEM ROCKER (Macho Uno) is headed to the April 26 WITHERS STAKES at Aqueduct. The Stronach Stables/Adena Racing Venture colt is trained by Todd Pletcher and he is unbeaten in 2 starts.

In other PLATE NEWS, the new WANDO STAKES, worth $110,000, is only an overnight stake but it should lure some Plate hopefuls. It will be run on April 25.

In today's DAILY RACING FORM, Bill Tallon reports that GIQUERE and DEPUTIFORMER, 2 contenders for trainer Mike DePaulo, will be nominated.

As for GIQUERE'S season debut at Gulfstream, DePaulo told Tallon:

"It was a disappointing race in that he was training so well," said DePaulo. "I thought there was going to be way more speed in the race. We made a mistake and took him back. If we'd let him roll, he would have won."

DePaulo plans to nominate both Deputiformer and Giquere to the $110,000 Wando, a new overnight stakes for 3-year-olds over 1 1/16 miles here April 25. The Wando is designed as a prep for the Grade 3, $150,000 Marine at 1 1/16 miles on May 17.


FEEDBACK


Thanks to everyone sending in opinions about TAKEOUT on wagers by Woodbine and other tracks.
Certainly it is a contentious issue, one that will never go away until tracks tinker with the takeout, experiment and drop it, see if business fluorishes. Yesterday I ran two stories about takeout at other tracks.
The issue is an important one and will be addressed again at a later time.



THOROUGHBRED BLOGGERS ALLIANCE

THOROUGHBLOG is a proud member of TBA, hard working, smart, race-loving folks who are very entertaining in their blogs.
The homepage for the TBA is undergoing a facelift and it already looks great
(www.thoroughbredbloggersalliance.com).
So many great blogs out there and one group...the FIRST SATURDAY IN MAY gang not only have a super blog but their film is being released this week (see the preview on my sidebar, below right).
TERESA over at the BROOKLYN BACKSTRETCH saw the film recently...

http://brooklynbackstretch.blogspot.com/2008/04/premiere-of-first-saturday-in-may.html


Note: THE FIRST SATURDAY IN MAY preview is a short little trailer - click on the widget below right on my sidebar. (You can also listen to some of Madonna's new songs, MILES AWAY and 4 MINUTES, as I put the widget for her new CD there...!)



KEENELAND STUFF

BOBBY FRANKEL continues to clean up. The California based trainer won another stake yesterday - the Grade 2 Beaumont with Santa Anita Oaks winner ARIEGE.

Interesting breeding on this gal - she is by Doneraile Court, a speedy, dirt oriented sire out of champion Irish turf mare Kostroma (by Caerleon). Now that is quite a nick.

Sovereign Award nominated filly OFFICER CHERRIE raced well for half the event before slipping back to 7th in her first race since September.

today...

The MAKER'S MARK MILE features Mile champ KIP DEVILLE, owned by the red-hot IEAH STABLE. Kip is headed to the WOODBINE MILE later this year if things go well...


April 11, $300,000, 4yo & up, 1mT, Keeneland Race Course, 5:10 PM ET
PP Horse Sire Jockey Wt. Trainer

1. Kip Deville Kipling Cornelio H. Velasquez 123 Richard E. Dutrow Jr.
2. Einstein (Brz) Spend a Buck Robby Albarado 123 Helen Pitts
3. Parading Pulpit John R. Velazquez 117 Claude R. McGaughey III
4. Ruff and Ready More Than Ready Eibar Coa 117 Todd A. Pletcher
5. Thousand Words (GB) Dansili (GB) Javier Castellano 117 Robert J. Frankel
6. Zann Dynaformer Julien R. Leparoux 117 Kiaran P. McLaughlin
7. Cosmonaut Lemon Drop Kid Edgar S. Prado 119 Philip M. Serpe
8. Out of Control (Brz) =Vettori (Ire) Garrett K. Gomez 121 Robert J. Frankel
9. Shakis (Ire) Machiavellian Alan Garcia 117 Kiaran P. McLaughlin
10. War Monger War Chant Kent J. Desormeaux 119 William I. Mott
11. Thorn Song Unbridled’s Song Rafael Bejarano 117 Dale L. Romans



YESTERDAY

The epitome of a racehorse.
If you have not seen the replay of the 4th race at AQUEDUCT yesterday, you should take a look.
JETS ONLY is your basic New York-bred 4yo gelding, entered in a maiden race for $15,000 claiming yesterday.
But he looked like ALYSHEBA or AFLEET ALEX in the stretch.
The son of A. P. Jet was in a jackpot of trouble while battling for the lead in early stretch, was pinballed between rivals, taken up when mildly stumbling, lost ground and then came on again to win.
It reminds us what this game is all about Charlie Brown...


KHARBINGER put it on YOUTUBE..





At Charles Town on Wednesday, WIN AGAIN won again.
The Ontario bred by Awesome Again-Valid Approval won for the 6th time in his 28th start in an allowance race at 7 furlongs for Scott Nicks. He was bred by Adena Springs.
His younger sister won yesterday (see below).


Old timer MOONSHINE HALL, a Kentucky bred, was nicely guided by Patrick Husbands to win an allowance race at Keeneland yesterday for his 8th win in 26 starts. The 8yo by Spinning World had to pass nearly everyone in the field on the grass to win the one-mile race in the last few jumps.
It was his 4th win in succession.
He is owned and was bred by Eugene Melnyk and is trained by Mark Casse.

Woodbine/Fort Erie based trainer JUSTIN NIXON sent out ONE STEP BETTER to win her maiden at Penn National two nights ago. The Awesome Again 4yo is a Florida-bred and is a half sister to Breeders' Stakes winner Royal Challenger.

Trainer TODD PLETCHER has been a tad quiete in recent months but he sent out two nice maiden winners at KEENELAND yesterday.

CHARMING cost $3.2 million as a yearling and she worked hard for her debut win yesterday. The Seeking the Gold-Take Charge Lady, Dehere filly led to the top of the strtech where she was challenged by another rival and that pair battled to the wire before Charming edged clear. She sizzled 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:15 3/5.

Earlier, GARDEN DISTRICT looked like a very good one as she reached out through the stretch and powered away to her debut win in a 2yo race. The Dixie Union filly is out of an Unbridled's Song mare and she raced 4 1/2 furlongs in 50 4/5.



The LEXINGTON HERALD LEADER's Maryjean Wall writes about
KENTUCKY BEAR...


KENTUCKY BEAR' BARGAIN AT 50 TO 1
Even 10-1 odds too high for trainer

By Maryjean Wall
MWALL@HERALD-LEADER.COM

Watch out because this bear of a horse might grab you by surprise in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.

We refer to Kentucky Bear, at 50-1. Don't let the odds scare you. The jockey and trainer are amused at the morning-line number assigned to the Bear in a field of 12 drawn for Saturday and led by even-money favorite Pyro.

"He looks like a bargain at 50-1. He's a bargain at 10-1," said Reade Baker, who trains Kentucky Bear for Bear Stables Ltd. of Danny Dion.

Jockey Jamie Theriot worked Kentucky Bear for the first time recently and got off the colt saying, "Wow!" Theriot is over the moon about the Bear.

"Fifty-to-one is way over too much for him," Theriot exclaimed.

Kentucky Bear is one of two 50-1 shots (Stone Bird is the other) among the 11 who will challenge Pyro, undefeated this season. The 84th Blue Grass field is the largest in 25 years.

While Pyro will take a lot of money from fans who consider him unbeatable, Kentucky Bear's connections do not see their colt as outclassed, outgamed or outrun.

There is always that chance that Pyro has a weakness as yet undefined.

One question is how he will race on Polytrack. He has worked on it at Keeneland but never run a race on it. The two situations are different.

The second choice in the morning line, Cool Coal Man, is another one with a possible chink in his armor: It will be nearly seven weeks since he last raced, winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes.

The co-third choices, Big Truck (Tampa Bay Derby winner) and Visionaire (Gotham Stakes winner), are nice horses. But after those two, it's anybody's race with three 15-1 choices.

Theriot said he doesn't even have to psyche himself up to ride this 50-1 shot. He has been excited since working Kentucky Bear and says "we have a very good shot."

It began with one of those trainer phone calls of the type jockeys get every day.

"Reade called and said, 'I think you're going to really like this colt,' " Theriot recalled. Well, maybe.

Then Theriot got off Kentucky Bear after the workout. He couldn't wait for the Blue Grass.

Baker, the Canadian who trains Kentucky Bear, said the colt is much better than his running lines look. He won his first start at 10-1 odds by 61/2 lengths. The second start was what will throw off the bettors.

On that occasion, Kentucky Bear finished seventh behind Cool Coal Man in the Fountain of Youth. It didn't look good.

"The public, unless they watch the replay, they don't know he bled (in his respiratory system) and that he ran down (through the skin) on his heels," Baker said. "But that was a single incident. I'm pretty confident he won't do it again."

One of the reasons for coming north to Keeneland was the cooler weather, which should be sure to help a horse who has gone through respiratory bleeding, Baker said.

But like Cool Coal Man, Kentucky Bear's last race was nearly seven weeks ago.

The time elapsed between races is even more interesting with Cowboy Cal: It's been almost two months for him.

As for Pyro, "We'll have to run against him in three weeks," Baker said. So why not now?

Theriot said he's convinced "the horse has a lot of ability. All we need is for him to show up."

And a little racing luck. You never know when you'll get the luck.

"As they say, if you ain't in it, you can't win it," Theriot said. "I'm really excited. I think we have a very good shot."



TOYOTA BLUE GRASS STAKES

When: 5:15 p.m. Saturday | TV: TVG | Purse: $750,000 | Distance: 1 1/8 miles | Weight: 123 lbs.
PP Horse Trainer Jockey Odds

1 Cool Coal Man Zito Desormeaux 4-1
2 Kentucky Bear Baker Theriot 50-1
3 Cowboy Cal Pletcher Velazquez 15-1
4 Stevil Zito Bejarano 30-1
5 Monba Pletcher Prado 15-1
6 Big Truck Tagg Coa 6-1
7 Pyro Asmussen Bridgmohan Even
8 Stone Bird Lukas Lanerie 50-1
9 Medjool Hofmans Baze 30-1
10 Miner's Claim Casse Husbands 20-1
11 Halo Najib Romans Gomez 15-1
12 Visionaire Matz Lezcano 6-1



KENTUCKY DERBY EARNINGS LIST

1. War Pass ... $1,470,000
2. Pyro ... $1,020,000
3. Proud Spell (filly) ... $880,000
4. Tale of Ekati ... $738,000
5. Colonel John ... $720,000
6. Big Brown ... $600,000
7. Z Humor ... $579,000
8. Kodiak Kowboy ... $441,373
9. Turf War ... $405,407
10. Court Vision ... $331,872
11. Adriano ... $310,000
12. Smooth Air ... $290,000
13. Salute the Sarge ... $258,940
14. Cool Coal Man ... $212,767
15. Anak Nakal ... $212,216
16. Eight Belles (filly) ... $210,000
17. Big Truck ... $194,500
18. Visionaire ... $180,000
19. Bob Black Jack ... $180,000
20. Denis of Cork ... $165,000
21. Halo Najib ... $157,996
22. Globetrotter ... $152,775
23. Tomcito ... $151,292
24. El Gato Malo ... $145,000
25. Atoned ... $130,000
26. Z Fortune ... $129,000
27. Blackberry Road ... $123,417
28. My Pal Charlie ... $120,000
29. Golden Yank ... $115,000
30. Yankee Bravo ... $105,000
31. Indian Sun ... $104,000
32. Racecar Rhapsody ... $90,871
33. Cool Gator ... $80,925
34. Elysium Fields ... $70,000
35. King's Silver Son ... $60,000
36. Cowboy Cal ... $57,660
37. Texas Wildcatter ... $53,750
38. Monba ... $50,000
39. Hey Byrn ... $50,000



A STUDY IN SPEED FIGURES

You have been in horse racing all your life but you still don't know how speed figures are made?
There are BEYER FIGURES, THORO-GRAPH SHEETS, RAGOZIN SHEETS, BRISNET FIGS etc.
How do they come up them?
Randy Moss talks about how he does 'figs' in this story:

Here is an excerpt from a super story today from the
Arkansas Democrat Gazette
www.nwanews.com

LOOKING AT THE FIGURES

BY ROBERT YATES

Posted on Friday, April 11, 2008

HOT SPRINGS — Even a seasoned speed handicapper like Randy Moss occasionally stumbles onto something like the 2006 Essex Handicap at Oaklawn Park, a race that defied his numbers-crunching logic.

The Essex, a $ 100, 000 Grade III race for older horses, featured the return of multiple graded stakes winner Rockport Harbor, who scored a visually impressive wire-to-wire victory in his first start in almost 10 months.

But what had Moss scratching his head was the fact that Rockport Harbor’s winning time of 1: 47. 68 for 1 1 / 16 miles was fractionally slower than Sayhellotolarry, a 3-year-old colt, needed to break his maiden a race earlier. Then, that confusion went public. When Moss released the numerical representation of each race’s final time — aka the Beyer speed figure — Rockport Harbor received a 98 and 1 Saythellotolarry an 89, or 5 / 2 lengths slower. Welcome to the world of speed / performance ratings, where figures truly are in the eye of the beholder. Beyer speed figures are carried in Daily Racing Form past performances, but Equibase and Brisnet also include speed ratings in a horse’s running lines.

Thoro-Graph and Ragozin sheets produce much more detailed performance ratings.

Handicapper David Bell has been publishing computergenerated figures since 1980 on his tip sheet, “STATS” (Statistical Trends and Track Selections ), which is sold at Oaklawn.

Even David Longinotti, Oaklawn’s assistant general manager / racing, has dabbled with speed figures for more than a decade.

*The basic fundamental for Beyer, Thoro-Graph, Ragozin, Bell and Longinotti is the same — figures are the product of how fast a horse runs, modified by how fast the surface was on that given day.

How they arrive at their conclusions can often be completely different.

“It’s so subjective,” said Moss, a Hot Springs native who is ESPN’s lead horse racing analyst. “There are people that swear the Beyers are better than the sheets, and then there are people who say that they like the sheets because they like the way ground lost is factored in and the way the weight is factored in. It just all depends on personal preference.” Beyer speed figures, the most mainstream, have appeared in the Form since 1992. They were developed more than 30 years ago by Andy Beyer, the noted handicapper, author and columnist.

Moss and Arkansas Democrat-Gazette handicapper Rick Lee are part of a network of handicappers who compile Beyer figures for tracks across the country.

If it’s a straightforward day, Moss said he normally needs about 20 minutes to assign figures for a track.

A little more time is necessary, he said, to unravel a day like Feb. 11, 2006, when Sayhellotolarry and Rockport Harbor ran within a half-hour of each other at Oaklawn.

Moss said it was “a very consistent day speed-figurewise” with a variant of plus-20, meaning he deduced the surface was 20 points slower than normal.

Variants are a numerical representation of the speed of the surface, based on actual running times compared to expected times.

The time of 1: 47. 42 for Sayhellotolarry and 1: 47. 68 for Rockport Harbor equated to raw Beyers of 69 and 66, respectively, on the scale used by Moss. Since the surface was 20 points slower than normal, Moss assigned Sayhellotolarry an 89, but struggled with what to do with Rockport Harbor. “If you apply that same variant to the Essex you get an 86,” Moss said. “Now at that point, red flags start to go up.” Moss said it was implausible to think horses the caliber of Thunder Mission, Silver Axe, Cougar Cat, Greater Good, Matched, Real Dandy and Jonesboro all would go significantly off form in the Essex.

“You began asking yourself, ‘What could have happened to make that fig, to make that variant change, or to make that fig so slow ?’” Moss said. “The first thing you look at is

to read more...http://www.nwanews.com/adg/Sports/222434/