ascot aug08
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Wednesday, September 26, 2007

HOT STUFF


did you KNOW??? That replays are available on the horseplayerinteractive website? Apparently for just over a week now...

WED. AFTERNOON UPDATE


PICK 7 CARRYOVER AT $35,000 tonight


Races 2 through 8 make up the Pick 7 tonight so let's take another shot at it with a few picks..

Race 2- SWEET LIL PUNKY with highest last race Beyer (at Fort Erie,however), toss in speed of KLINSMAN'S LUCK and dropping GENIVER
RACE 3- maiden allowance - LADY MOON and GRACELICIOUS (will they both bounce?)
RACE 4 - EVER SO FREE
RACE 5 - tough maiden allowance for 2yo's - experienced WILBERFORCE looks good, consider MAN ON BOTTOM
RACE 6 - PUT UPON as the speed, NYUK NYUK NYUK as the class
RACE 7 - RUNWAY LOVE, overdue, way overdue
RACE 8 - spread these maidens - FOOLISH FANTASY, TISROC, OURTIMETODANCE

GRADE 3 MAZARINE SATURDAY - JUST 5 ENTERED

It seems as if the Grade 3 tag on the MAZARINE BREEDERS' CUP STAKES is in jeopardy based on a drab field drawn for the $250,000 race for 2yo fillies at1 1/16 miles on Saturday.
Seveeral 5 and 6 horse fields make up a very light card on that day.
The Mazarine,, once considered by some as the most important 2yo filly race in Canada, has dropped off the map in recent years.
This year's field of 5 includes one supplement BORN TO BE (A.P. Indy) and a top Beyer Figure of 77 (earned by Officer Cherrie in the Ont. Debutante Stakes).


Thanks to BRISNET.com, here is a recap of what's been happening at Woodbine in 2007.
Also, note the hot trainers and jockey (just one).




WOODBINE AT A GLANCE


Avg. Winning Odds: 6.06 - 1

Favorite Win%: 31%, Favorite Itm%: 64%


EXOTICS

PAYOFF

Daily Double:

105.09

Triactor:

883.21

Pick 3:

459.89

Superfecta:

6,793.70

Pick 4:

4,612.84

Pick 7:

54,044.90

Exactor:

103.70

Win Four:

3,612.91

TRACK BIAS MEET(03/31 - 09/23)

TRACK BIAS WEEK(09/19 - 09/23)

Distance

#
Race

%
Wire

Best
Style

Best
Posts

Distance

#
Race

%
Wire

Best
Style

Best
Posts

6.0fDirt

240

30%

P

Outside

6.0fDirt

6

33%

S

Mid/Out

7.0fDirt

162

21%

E

Middle

7.0fDirt

11

9%

P

Rail/Ins

1m 70yDirt

7

14%

E/P

Outside

1m 70yDirt

1

0%

S

Outside

1 1/16mDirt

199

22%

P

Middle

1 1/16mDirt

8

13%

E/P

Mid/Out

Turf Sprint

85

20%

E/P

Rail

Turf Sprint

1

100%

E

Middle

Turf Routes

93

11%

P

Rail

Turf Routes

10

10%

S

Middle

Who's HOT, Who's NOT


HOT TRAINERS

Starts

Wins

Place

Show

Avg.
Odds

Winning
Favorites

'06-'07
Win%

Casse Mark E.

21

9

6

1

5.71

3

20%

Loney A. Radlie

5

3

1

1

3.15

2

21%

Armata Ross

3

2

0

0

6.52

0

19%

Giliforte Layne S.

3

2

0

0

13.12

0

19%

Jordan Terry

3

2

0

0

4.85

1

21%

Richards Lorne

5

2

0

0

3.84

1

22%

Ross John A.

5

2

0

0

10.09

0

21%

Attard Paul

6

2

0

1

12.08

1

21%

Benson Macdonald

6

2

0

1

8.02

1

20%

Johnson Joseph H.

6

2

0

0

6.13

1

20%


HOT JOCKEYS

Starts

Wins

Place

Show

Avg.
Odds

Winning
Favorites

'06-'07
Win%

Wilson Emma-Jayne

25

7

2

4

7.50

5

17%


COLD TRAINERS

Starts

Wins

Place

Show

Avg.
Odds

Beaten
Favorit
es

'06-'07
Win%

De Paulo Michael P.

14

0

0

0

13.63

0

13%

Attard Tino

10

0

0

2

21.85

3

10%

Minshall Barbara J.

10

0

1

0

26.60

2

6%


COLD JOCKEYS:

None







COMING UP

The big social event of the season is the LONGRUN GALA on Friday night - it's sold out folks and it's the marquee fundraiser for the year. LONGRUN THOROUGHBRED RETIREMENT FOUNDATION had its first meeting on NOVEMBER 24, 1998 when its names was chosen by a board of directors numbering 8.
The group has expanded, has charitable status and has retired hundreds of horses over the years.
This year's Gala theme - MOTOWN!

CHAMPION 3YO UP FOR GRABS

Sunday's ONTARIO DERBY should decide the champion 3yo of the year...MIKE FOX or ALEZZANDRO (okay, some may like Leonnatus Anteas but that one has not won anything this year). The pair have each been freshened and are working fast for their return in the Derby.

Hey, on Saturday, there are 49 stakes races worth 100,000 bucks or more across N.A. (thanks to the DRF's Steve Crist for counting). Get ready to mark down your Breeders' Cup hopefuls after watching some of these races!

12 Comments:

  • At 8:45 AM, Anonymous Punter Blues said…

    Jen, could you get BRISNET.com to run the same Track Bias report you posted but for the same period at Woodbine in 2005, when racing was all on dirt?

    It might show what differences there might be between dirt and Polytrack.

     
  • At 10:40 AM, Anonymous Steve said…

    Pet Peeves:

    1.Track Maintenance
    Woodbine should list(as other tracks do)what they've done to the track that day. Maintenance is extremely important to all handicappers and I don't want to have to watch 2-3 races before I understand what(seems to be)is going on.

    2.Photo Finishes

    Show the damn photo before you list the eventual winner. How many times have I waited(forever if it came at all) for a photo that showed the horse that won(or 2nd-3rd-4th). If they can confidently list the winner, then why can't they show the photo immediately!


    3.Jockey's who think.

    To all Jockey's. Please don't think! It will only hurt your horses chances of winning. I don't need to single any of you out...you know who you are. Let the horse run it's race...Just Steer!

    More to come.....

     
  • At 12:37 PM, Blogger the_drake said…

    I think it's too close too call right now for the 3yo fillies, but I think not being a CAN-bred will hurt Bear Now in the long run. Seally Hill won the Triple Tiara (unfortunately only 2/3 for voting), also added a Graded win in the States over eventual G1 winner Panty Raid and a runner up finish in a G2 vs. older mares. Bear Now destroyed some ok fillies (who also weren't eligible for the Triple Tiara, not too many to draw from)in Canada, then ran a flop, then a big one defeating G1 winner Octave (who seems to need everything her own way and likes running 2nd). In the end, there's still a long way to go in my mind, and the only real way to find out would be to see them in a field together, but don't see that happening anytime soon.
    As for horse of the year, I think it's Sky Conquerors race to loose, He has a G1 win on Derby day, which is like a G1+ and if you toss his 2 mile races this year, which make no sense he's pretty solid, now that he's taking the low road and staying home for the International (which may still be pretty tough) he should be a lock, a top 3 in the Inter in my mind seals it for him.

    As for Steves pet peeves, they put the results up before the photo because there are probably 100 people out there who would rather see the final order of finish for every 1 who wants to see a picture. Most people don't care what the picture looks like, just who won, expecially if you've got to get down 4 floors to get your picture taken.

     
  • At 12:44 PM, Anonymous Cangamble said…

    Jen, why are the HPI replays such a secret?

    Steve, from Gordon Jones famous book.
    The Jockey Factor:

    "A jockey does not move a horse up. He moves it back simply by adding weight to an empty saddle. Thus it follows that the truly good riders are the ones who mover their steeds back less far by staying out of trouble and allowing their mounts to approach their optimum race in terms of pace and position."

    It was written in 1975, so there weren't too many female jocks back then. This explains why Jones referred to jocks as males only.

    He does have a point. Lots of horses who unseat their riders finish ahead of the rest of the field, and many are improbable on form and go off at very high odds.

     
  • At 1:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I'm amazed that only 5 fillies would be entered for a Grade III with a purse of $250,000. Does anyone have an opinion as to why this would be?

     
  • At 5:01 PM, Anonymous steve said…

    To: Drake

    I would still like to see the photo in a timely fashion. There is absolutely no excuse for waiting to show the ultimate order of finish. And, if the picture takers aren't making there way to the winner enclosure then I guess they'll be late.


    To: Cangamble

    I agree with what was written and it just proves that steering is all they should do. No need to think, just let the horse guide you and you shall succeed.

    P.S. A horse that unseats his rider and passes the field confirms once again that the horse is capable of winning. Add the jockey and it's a whole different ballgame.

     
  • At 6:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    can the respondent of Drill Down's workout regimen being I can only assume to be to aggressive and it was a no wonder further elabarate. I personally don't see anything out of the ordinary.

    Drill Down 09/17/2007 SA 5F :58.60 All Weather Track Fast H
    08/30/2007 DMR 5F 1:02.00 All Weather Track Fast H
    08/23/2007 DMR 6F 1:13.60 All Weather Track Fast H
    08/16/2007 DMR 5F 1:00.60 All Weather Track Fast H
    08/09/2007 DMR 4F :49.40 All Weather Track Fast B
    07/25/2007 DMR 3F :34.80 All Weather Track Fast H
    07/18/2007 DMR 6F 1:14.40 All Weather Track Fast H
    07/12/2007 HOL 4F :48.60 All Weather Track Fast H

     
  • At 8:40 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Sky Conqueror.

    "now that he's taking the low road and staying home for the International (which may still be pretty tough)"

    He will go very close in the big race and I would strongly fancy him to win, but take my advice and consult the oracle for the winner on the day.

     
  • At 11:53 PM, Blogger the_drake said…

    Just a thought...what do 2007 Graded winners Indian Vale, Last Answer and Le Cinquieme Essai have to do to be moved ahead of an allowance winner on the Hot List.

    As for the Mazerine, seeing as a Beyer in the 70's has looked pretty good in that race in recent years, and one in the 50's (I think) was good enough to net you G3 black type last year, you would think it would be on the map of any owner and trainer with a filly who should be stretching out this time of year, it's probably no tougher than a 2 turn maiden race. Another reason for lack of entries may be the lack of Breeders Cup nominated fillies on the grounds that want two turns (at this point of their careers, get used to it with such a focus on breeding to speed, a filly who can go long at 2 could become very valuable in coming years), I think the purse is cut in 1/2 and trainers of most non BC nominated horses would probably avoid it and stick what they think would be an easier spot, an OSS race or the Princess Elizabeth.

     
  • At 9:54 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Drake,
    You make some interesting points regarding my Mazarine question. I guess the purse is actually "only" $175,000 unless a filly is Breeders Cup nominated, but that's still a lot of money. And you're right that not many 2-yo fillies can legitimately go long. Also, now that I think of it, I suppose Canada-breds have other options that would be easier than an open stake. Still...it's hard to believe that no U.S.-based trainers would take a shot for a purse like that.

     
  • At 9:31 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Just a question for the people who think horses losing a rider and finishing ahead of the field proves anything about the horse ability to win - does the 100 plus lbs the horse is not carrying on his back make any difference?

     
  • At 10:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    CAN ANYONE EXPLAIN HOW THE ONE RACE WONDER HORSE NAMED MIKE FOX
    WHO WON THE QUEENS PLATE GONE TO?
    THIS IS EXACTLY WHY THIS HORSE SHOULD NEVER HAVE WON THE QUEENS PLATE. HE'S BEEN NOTHING BUT A DISAPPOINTMENT SINCE WINNING THE PLATE. THE REAL QUESTION IS WILL HE EVER WIN ANOTHER BIG RACE OR ANY RACE?

     

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